In 2030, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to replace ternary and become the mainstream technology route for energy storage system applications

At this stage, most lithium battery energy storage systems have a battery life of 4 to 6 hours. As far as the current battery performance is concerned, beyond this time period, the economics of lithium batteries will become worse and worse, and the rate of return will decrease.

The growing demand for lithium batteries in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets has continuously promoted the innovation of lithium battery technology routes, including improving the positive electrode, negative electrode and electrolyte of the battery to develop better performance lithium batteries.

Since 2010, the market demand for electric vehicles has grown rapidly, which has reduced the cost of lithium batteries by more than 85%. Historically, the energy storage market has mainly used nickel-manganese-cobalt ternary lithium batteries. Especially at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019, the demand for energy storage increased sharply, resulting in a short supply of nickel-manganese-cobalt ternary lithium batteries. At the same time, there is still a supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries on the market, whose production capacity mainly comes from China.

Due to the increase in the delivery time of nickel-manganese-cobalt ternary lithium batteries and the slower price decline, lithium iron phosphate batteries began to seize market share at a lower price, whether in power applications or energy applications. Preferred one.

In the next few years, the demand for lithium batteries in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets will continue to show rapid growth. Due to different applicable scenarios, the performance requirements of the two lithium batteries are different. To this end, battery manufacturers will begin to innovate their products and provide targeted products for market segments.

For the energy storage market, factors such as battery life and charge-discharge rate will take precedence over energy density. Cost and safety are still the primary considerations for battery suppliers in a variety of applications.

In the next ten years, the demand for lithium batteries for electric vehicles will continue to occupy the largest share of the global demand for lithium-ion batteries. As the electric vehicle and energy storage markets begin to take off, the share of lithium battery demand from portable electronic products will drop significantly from 26% in 2020 to 6% in 2030. Wood Mackenzie believes that lithium iron phosphate batteries will continue to be popular in the Chinese electric vehicle market, and then enter the global passenger electric vehicle field. It is estimated that by 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will account for more than 20% of installed capacity in the electric vehicle industry.

The improvement of cell energy density and the application of module removal technology (CTP) are important factors for LFP to become more and more competitive in the passenger electric vehicle market. Adopting LFP can not only reduce costs and improve battery safety, but also solve the problem of battery manufacturers' limited supply of cobalt and nickel.

Original title: Wood Mackenzie: It is estimated that in 2030, lithium iron phosphate battery (LFP) is expected to replace nickel-manganese-cobalt ternary lithium battery (NMC) as the mainstream technology route for the application of lithium battery energy storage systems