The share of lithium iron phosphate batteries is likely to surpass that of ternary lithium batteries again

Introduction: Some insiders believe that "the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries is likely to surpass that of ternary lithium batteries again."

Recently, lithium iron phosphate batteries have been favored again.

The latest data from the China Automobile Association shows that in October, my country’s power battery installed capacity was 5.9GWh, an increase of 44.0% year-on-year and a month-on-month decrease of 10.8%, continuing to maintain a growth trend year-on-year. Among them, ternary lithium batteries installed a total of 3.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and a decrease of 19.1% from the previous month; a total of 2.4GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries were installed, a year-on-year increase of 127.5%, and a month-on-month increase of 3.5%, achieving year-on-year growth for three consecutive months. Over 100%. From the data point of view, the rate of increase in the loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries is much higher than that of ternary lithium batteries.

At the same time, in the first 10 months of this year, my country’s power battery installed capacity has accumulated to 40GWh. The installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries accounted for 67.4% of the total installed vehicles, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 31.9% of the total installed vehicles. The share increased by 1.6 percentage points from January to September.

Hot-selling models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries

The industry believes that the direct cause of the continued outbreak of lithium iron phosphate batteries in October was the hot sales of explosive models led by BYD Han EV and Wuling Hongguang mini.

According to data from the Travel Federation, the sales of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV reached 23,762 in October, ranking first in the sales of new energy vehicles for several consecutive months. This A00-class car equipped with a lithium iron phosphate battery is priced at 28,800 yuan and has a total sales of 20,631 units in October, occupying the top spot in single-model sales for consecutive months.

In October, Tesla, which ranked fourth in sales in the new energy passenger car market, announced that the price of the upgraded version of the domestic Model 3 standard battery life was reduced from 271,000 yuan to 249,000 yuan. The main factor for the price reduction was the use of the Ningde era. Lower cost lithium iron phosphate battery. Previously, the domestic Tesla Model 3 standard battery life upgraded version was equipped with NCA811 or NCM high nickel ternary lithium batteries.

BYD Han, which uses "blade batteries", sold 7,545 units in October, an increase of 34.4% from the previous month. With the release of production capacity, terminal sales will be in a process of gradual increase.

The subsidy decline is also one of the reasons

It is understood that the previous subsidy policy for new energy vehicles required energy density. The higher the energy density and the longer the cruising range, the higher the amount of subsidy received. Early policies favored commercial vehicles, and lithium iron phosphate batteries gained advantages due to safety.

However, with the end of 2016, the competent authority included the energy density of the battery system into the assessment criteria for the first time, and high energy density and long cruising range became the focus of subsidies. Ternary batteries began to gain attention, while lithium iron phosphate batteries were left out.

By 2019, the subsidy for new energy vehicles has begun to decline, and it has been reduced by more than half compared with 2018, so that the more cost-effective lithium iron phosphate battery will return to the public.

Full production of major manufacturers

Brokerage surveys show that since September, with the recovery of new energy vehicles, the output of power battery plants has increased month by month, and the major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate entered full production in October, and output no longer increases. From the demand side, downstream companies are still increasing orders for lithium iron phosphate, and the shortage of demand is becoming more apparent.

The agency pointed out that the current subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is gradually declining, and the sensitivity is gradually decreasing. Auto manufacturers are more in accordance with market-oriented strategies to choose the best batteries, and the more cost-effective lithium iron phosphate has gradually become a better choice. For example, Defang Nano stated in the survey summary that the company has recently reached full production; Yuneng New Energy, in which Xiangtan Electrochemical holds about 16% of its shares, is a dominant lithium iron phosphate company.Occupancy rate or more than ternary lithium battery

It is understood that lithium iron phosphate batteries are not only used in electric vehicles, but also in 5G base stations, new energy power generation, lead-acid batteries and other markets.

The current safety and low cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries, as well as the industry and the market’s more rational underst